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The ultimate debt trap for the US economy

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Fat guys can surprise you. They don't move very fast. But they can be very agile intellectually.

That was how G.K. Chesterton was. Laurence Lindsay, former assistant to George W. Bush for economic policy, seems to be the same way. Slow on his feet, perhaps. But quick in his mind.

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Lindsey delivers thoughts that might have come from the Daily Reckoning. First, he notes that the budget problems faced by Washington are larger than generally reported. Growth rates have been overestimated, he says, while interest costs and deficits have been grossly underestimated. When more realistic assumptions are plugged in to the numbers it adds more than $4 trillion in 'budget costs' over the next four years. He concludes: Underestimating the long-term budget situation is an old game in Washington. But never have the numbers been this large.

There is no way to raise taxes enough to cover these problems. The tax-the-rich proposals of the Obama administration raise about $700 billion, less than a fifth of the budgetary consequences of the excess economic growth projected in their forecast. The whole $700 billion collected over 10 years would not even cover the difference in interest costs in any one year at the end of the decade between current rates and the average cost of Treasury borrowing over the last 20 years.

Only serious long-term spending reduction in the entitlement area can begin to address the nation's deficit and debt problems. It should no longer be credible for our elected officials to hide the need for entitlement reforms behind rosy economic and budgetary assumptions. And while we should all hope for a deal that cuts spending and raises the debt ceiling to avoid a possible default, bondholders should be under no illusions.

Under current government policies and economic projections, they should be far more concerned about a return of their principal in 10 years than about any short-term delay in a coupon payment in August. Yesterday, stocks rose. The Dow was up 145 points. Oil increased a little too. Gold stayed at $1,500.

Still no clear direction.

But the direction of the bond market for the last few months has been up. This appears to contradict Mr. Lindsey. QE 2 is ending. Everybody knows it. The Fed was the world's biggest customer for US debt - in some months buying two times as much debt as the US government issued.

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